Electric Commercial Vehicle Market by Vehicle Type (Pickups, Medium and Heavy-Duty Trucks, Vans, Buses), Propulsion, Range, Battery Type, Power Output, Battery Capacity, Component, End User, Body Construction and Region - Global Forecast to 2030
[334 Pages Report] The global electric commercial vehicle market is projected to grow from USD 70.9 billion in 2024 to USD 255.6 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 23.8%. The stringent regulations to reduce emissions and promote sustainable transportation practices have incentivized businesses to transition to electric vehicles, aligning with global efforts to combat climate change. Additionally, advancements in battery technology have led to increased energy density, longer driving ranges, and faster charging times, addressing some of the primary concerns associated with the feasibility of electric vehicles in commercial applications. Moreover, the decreasing costs of electric vehicle components, including batteries and electric drivetrains, coupled with government subsidies and incentives, have made electric commercial vehicles more financially viable for businesses, resulting in a lower total cost of ownership over the vehicle's lifecycle compared to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Furthermore, growing consumer awareness and demand for environmentally friendly products and services have prompted businesses to embrace electric vehicles as part of their corporate sustainability initiatives, further propelling market growth. Electric heavy-duty truck eActros 600 by Mercedes-Benz Group AG (Germany) was launched in October 2023. Whereas Renault (France) launched Renault Trucks D, D Wide electric truck in October 2023. In May 2023, Mercedes-Benz Group AG (Germany) launched EQT Van (Electric Van) equipped with a 90-kW electric motor, two sliding doors, the MBUX infotainment system, and numerous safety and assistance systems. Electric Vans is emerged as the largest market in electric commercial vehicle. And last mile delivery has the largest market share in end use application of EVCs. Along with this the emergence of innovative business models such as electric vehicle leasing and fleet management solutions for electric vehicles have facilitated easier adoption and integration of electric commercial vehicles into existing transportation infrastructures, fostering market expansion and driving towards a more sustainable future.
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Market Dynamics:
Driver: Rising Fossil Fuel Prices
As the cost of traditional fuels such as gasoline and diesel continues to escalate, businesses are faced with mounting operational expenses, particularly those reliant on large fleets of vehicles for transportation and logistics. This upward trend in fuel prices underscores the financial benefits of transitioning to electric vehicles, which offer substantially lower operating costs over their lifespan. ECVs rely on electricity as their primary source of power, which tends to be more stable in terms of pricing compared to fossil fuels. Therefore, businesses seeking to mitigate the impact of volatile fuel prices on their bottom line are increasingly turning to ECVs as a cost-effective alternative.
Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding future fossil fuel prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, further incentivizes businesses to invest in ECVs as a long-term strategy for cost savings and financial stability. Unlike traditional vehicles whose fuel costs are subject to market fluctuations and geopolitical risks, ECVs offer a more predictable and sustainable solution for managing transportation expenses. By reducing dependence on fossil fuels, businesses can insulate themselves from the adverse effects of fuel price volatility and achieve greater control over their operating expenses, thus driving the accelerated adoption of ECVs in commercial fleets.
Restraint: High Development Cost
Developing electric vehicle technology requires substantial research, development, and manufacturing infrastructure investment. This includes investments in battery technology, electric drivetrains, charging infrastructure, and other components unique to electric vehicles. These upfront costs pose a barrier to entry for many manufacturers, particularly smaller companies without the financial resources to fund extensive research and development efforts. As a result, the initial cost of ECVs tends to be higher compared to their conventional counterparts, making them less accessible to businesses operating on tighter budgets.
Additionally, the high development costs of ECVs can deter investment in scaling up production capacity, further limiting the availability of electric vehicles in the market. Manufacturers must recoup their development expenses through sales, which can prolong the time it takes for ECVs to reach price parity with traditional vehicles. This cost disparity may dissuade businesses from transitioning to electric fleets, especially if the return on investment is too long-term or uncertain. Consequently, despite the long-term cost savings associated with operating ECVs, the high initial investment required for development and production remains a significant restraining factor in the broader adoption of electric commercial vehicles.
Opportunity: Development of wireless EV charging technology for on-the-go charging
Wireless charging eliminates the need for physical connections between the vehicle and the charging infrastructure, offering greater convenience and flexibility for fleet operators. This technology enables ECVs to charge automatically while parked or idling, minimizing downtime and maximizing operational efficiency. For businesses with large fleets, such as delivery services or public transportation agencies, wireless charging offers a seamless and hassle-free solution for keeping vehicles powered throughout the day, thereby enhancing productivity and reducing operational costs.
Moreover, wireless charging technology addresses some of the key challenges associated with the adoption of ECVs, such as range anxiety and limited charging infrastructure. By enabling continuous charging without the need for frequent stops at charging stations, wireless charging systems can extend the driving range of ECVs and alleviate concerns about battery range limitations. This increased range and flexibility make ECVs more practical and appealing for a wider range of applications, including long-haul transportation and urban delivery services. As wireless charging technology continues to advance and become more widespread, it has the potential to accelerate the adoption of ECVs and drive their growth in the commercial vehicle market.
Challenge: Low availability of lithium for EV batteries
The limited availability of lithium-ion batteries poses a significant challenge to the growth of Electric Commercial Vehicles (ECVs). As the demand for electric vehicles continues to rise globally, there is increasing pressure on the supply chain for key components, particularly lithium-ion batteries. These batteries are essential for powering ECVs and are also used in various other applications, such as consumer electronics and renewable energy storage. However, the production capacity for lithium-ion batteries has not kept pace with the rapid growth in demand, leading to supply shortages and price volatility. This scarcity of batteries has resulted in longer lead times for manufacturers and increased costs for vehicle producers, hindering their ability to scale up production and meet market demand for ECVs.
Furthermore, the low availability of lithium-ion batteries has implications for the affordability and accessibility of ECVs, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses. The limited supply drives up the cost of batteries, which in turn increases the overall cost of electric vehicles. As a result, businesses may face higher upfront expenses when purchasing ECVs or encounter delays in acquiring vehicles due to production constraints. Additionally, the reliance on a single type of battery technology raises concerns about supply chain resilience and dependency on specific raw materials, such as lithium and cobalt, which are subject to geopolitical and environmental risks. Addressing the challenge of battery availability will be crucial for unlocking the full potential of ECVs and accelerating their adoption in the commercial vehicle market.
Market Ecosystem
NMC batteries hold the largest market share during the forecasted period.
NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) batteries contain several materials with distinct properties, high density, and efficiency. These batteries are ideal for use in electric commercial vehicles as they have a low self-heating rate during operation. They are known for their high energy density, allowing them to store a considerable amount of energy in a relatively compact and lightweight package. This characteristic is crucial for electric commercial vehicles as it directly influences the vehicle’s range on a single charge. Many leading battery manufacturers, such as CATL (China), LG Energy Solutions (South Korea), Panasonic Corporation (Japan), and BYD (China), produce NMC batteries. NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) batteries are widely adopted in the electric vehicle market, including electric commercial vehicles. These batteries have achieved a balance between cost and performance, making them a cost-effective choice for electric commercial vehicles. This cost-effectiveness is crucial for the commercial sector, where the total cost of ownership is a significant consideration. Many leading OEMs also incorporate NMC batteries in their electric trucks, including Mercedes-Benz e-Actros, Volvo FL Electric, BYD T series, and Rivian R1T. These batteries have a higher energy density than LFP batteries, and the declining cost of NMC batteries further drives the segment.
The 60–120 kWh segment is estimated to be the largest battery capacity segment of the electric commercial vehicles market over the forecast period.
The 60–120 battery capacity range strikes a balance between power and range, making it suitable for a broader range of commercial applications, including medium to long-haul transportation. With larger batteries, vehicles in this segment can cover longer distances on a single charge, addressing the needs of industries such as regional freight transport and inter-city logistics. The 2023 E-Transit Cargo Van from Ford is equipped with a 68 kWh lithium-ion battery pack with a more than 200 km range. Government incentives and regulations encouraging the electrification of transportation, coupled with a growing awareness of the environmental benefits, are boosting the demand for electric commercial vehicles with 60–120 kWh battery capacities. In January 2024, the government of Canada announced its plan to offer a maximum incentive of USD 5,000 per vehicle for businesses purchasing new light-duty zero-emission vehicles. As businesses seek sustainable alternatives and aim to meet emissions targets, the 60–120 kWh battery segment presents a compelling option for those requiring a balance between extended range and operational flexibility.
Asia Pacific is the largest market for Electric Commercial Vehicle during the forecast period.
The Asia Pacific region is projected to be the largest ECV market by 2030. The Asia Pacific market is dominated by China, which has large sales volumes for electric commercial vehicles, especially electric buses. With favorable government regulations and the increasing adoption of electric buses in public transport fleets, India is expected to be a high-potential market for electric commercial vehicles in the future. Asia Pacific is home to many OEMs, especially Chinese companies, dominating the global electric commercial vehicle market. Japanese companies also play a vital role in automotive technological developments in Asia Pacific. For instance, in May 2023, Toyota Motor Corporation (Japan) collaborated with PACCAR Inc. (US) to expand their joint efforts to develop and produce hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, which are powered by Toyota hydrogen fuel cell modules. All such developments in the region will drive the market for electric commercial vehicles during the forecast period.
In North America, federal and state governments are offering incentives to promote the adoption of electric vehicles, including commercial vehicles. These incentives include tax credits, rebates, grants, and infrastructure investments. For instance, the US federal government's investments in charging infrastructure and tax incentives for EV purchases have stimulated growth in the electric commercial vehicle market.
Key Market Players
The Electric Commercial Vehicle market is dominated by established players such as BYD (China), Mercedes-Benz Group AG (Germany), Yutong (China), AB Volvo (Sweden), and Ford Motor Company (US) and others. These companies manufacture and develop new ECVs as per the market requirement. These companies adopted strategies such as product developments, deals, and others to gain traction in the market.
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Report Metric |
Details |
|
Market size available for years |
2019–2030 |
|
Base year considered |
2023 |
|
Forecast period |
2024-2030 |
|
Forecast units |
Volume (Million Units) and Value (USD Million) |
|
Segments Covered |
Vehicle type, Propulsion Type, Range, Battery Type, Power Output, Battery Capacity, Component, End User, Body Construction and Region |
|
Geographies covered |
Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America |
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Companies Covered |
BYD (China), Mercedes-Benz Group AG (Germany), Yutong (China), AB Volvo (Sweden) and Ford Motor Company (US) |
This research report categorizes the Electric Commercial Vehicle market based on Vehicle type, Propulsion Type, Range, Battery Type, Power Output, Battery Capacity, Component, End User, Body Construction and Region.
Based on Vehicle Type:
- Pickup Trucks
- Trucks (Medium-duty Trucks and Heavy-duty Trucks)
- Vans (Light Vans and Full-size Vans)
- Buses & Coaches
Based on Propulsion:
- BEV
- FCEV
Based on Battery Type:
- LFP Batteries
- NMC Batteries
- Solid-state Batteries
- Others
Based on Battery Capacity:
- Less than 60 kWh
- 60−120 kWh
- 121−200 kWh
- 201−300 kWh
- 301−500 kWh
- 501−1,000 kWh
Based on Power Output:
- Less than 100 kW
- 100−250 kW
- Above 250 kW
Based on Range:
- Less than 150 Miles
- 151−300 Miles
- Above 300 Miles 100−250 kW
Based on End Use:
- Last-mile Delivery
- Field Services
- Distribution Services
- Long-haul Transportation
- Refuse Trucks
Based on Body Construction:
- Integrated
- Semi-integrated
- Full-sized
Based on Component:
- Battery Packs
- Onboard Chargers
- Electric Motors
- Inverters
- DC-DC Converters
- E-Axels (Including Gearboxes)
- Fuel-cell Stacks
Based on the region:
-
Asia Pacific
- China
- India
- Japan
- South Korea
-
North America
- Canada
- US
-
Europe
- Austria
- France
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Spain
- Sweden
- Italy
- UK
- Others
Recent Developments
- In January 2024, Dongfeng Motor Corporation (Dongfeng) and Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. (Huawei) entered into a partnership to collaborate on Dongfeng’s Voyah brand of “new energy” vehicles. Through this partnership, Dongfeng will include various Huawei technologies in its vehicles, such as autonomous driving and infotainment software.
- In January 2024, Tesla, Inc. announced its plan to set up a factory in India and may invest USD 30 billion over the next 5 years.
- In October 2023, The Infrastructure & Transport Ministry of Greece signed a contract with Yutong for 250 e-buses. This contract will facilitate green and sustainable development and improve public transport conditions in Greece.
- In June 2023, Ford Motor Company opened the Electric Vehicle Center, an electric vehicle production facility in Germany, to serve the European markets.
- In May 2023, Mercedes-Benz Group AG released the EQT van (Electric Van), which is equipped with a 90-kW electric motor, two sliding doors, the MBUX infotainment system, and numerous safety and assistance systems.
- In May 2023, AB Volvo launched an Augmented Reality (AR) safety app for electric trucks designed to support responders in an emergency. The app provides valuable real-time information from the electric truck to guide emergency services for safe rescue operations.
- In April 2023, Scania AB launched an all-electric car transporter with a GVWR of 42 tons and a battery capacity of 230 kWh.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):
What is the current size of the electric commercial vehicle market by value?
The size of the electric commercial vehicle market is estimated to be USD 70.9 billion in 2024.
Who are the winners in the electric commercial vehicle market?
The ECV market is dominated by established players such as BYD (China), Mercedes-Benz Group AG (Germany), Renault (France), AB Volvo (Sweden), and Yutong (China) and others. These companies manufacture and develop ECVs. These companies adopted strategies such as product developments, deals, and others to gain traction in the market.
Which region will have the fastest-growing market for electric commercial vehicle market?
Asia Pacific will be the fastest-growing electric commercial vehicle market region as it leads the global EV market, with China alone accounting for more than half of global EV sales. Leading automotive manufacturers in this region, such as BYD (China), Yutong (China), Tata Motor Limited (India), Isuzu Motors Limited (Japan), Dongfeng Motor Corporation (China) and among others are leveraging the growth of ECVs in the region.
What are the new market trends impacting the growth of the electric commercial vehicle market?
The key trends impacting the growth of the electric commercial vehicle market are government initiatives promoting electric commercial vehicle adoption, and increasing demand for emission-free electric commercial vehicles in logistics industry, among others.
What countries are covered in the North American region for the electric commercial vehicle market?
The countries covered in the report for the electric commercial vehicle market are the US and Canada. .
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This research study involved the extensive use of secondary sources, such as company annual reports/presentations, industry association publications, automotive magazine articles, directories, technical handbooks, the World Economic Outlook, trade websites, technical articles, and databases, to identify and collect information on the Electric Commercial Vehicle market. In-depth interviews were conducted with various primary respondents, including key industry participants, subject-matter experts (SMEs), C-level executives of key market players (ECVs manufacturers and suppliers), and industry consultants, among other experts, to obtain and verify critical qualitative and quantitative information and assess market prospects.
Secondary Research
In the secondary research process, various secondary sources were used to identify and collect information on the electric commercial vehicle market for this study. Secondary sources included annual reports, press releases, and investor presentations of companies; whitepapers, certified publications, and articles from recognized authors; directories; databases; and articles from recognized associations and government publishing sources.
Primary Research
Extensive primary research was conducted after understanding the electric commercial vehicle market scenario through secondary research. Several primary interviews were conducted with market experts from both the demand (OEMs) and supply (electric commercial vehicle manufacturers and component manufacturers) sides across major regions, namely, North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Approximately 30% and 70% of primary interviews were conducted from the demand and supply sides, respectively. Primary data was collected through questionnaires, emails, and telephonic interviews.
In the canvassing of primaries, various departments within organizations, such as sales, operations, and marketing, were covered to provide a holistic viewpoint in the report. After interacting with industry experts, brief sessions were conducted with highly experienced independent consultants to reinforce the findings from primaries. This, along with the opinions of in-house subject matter experts, led to the findings described in the remainder of this report.
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Market Size Estimation
- A detailed market estimation approach was followed to estimate and validate the value and volume of the electric commercial vehicle market and other dependent submarkets, as mentioned below:
- The market size was derived by collecting sales of electric commercial vehicles (Pickup Trucks, Medium-duty and Heavy-duty Trucks, Light and Full-Size Vans, and Buses & Coaches) through association and paid databases.
- Key players in the electric commercial vehicle market were identified through secondary research, and their global market share was determined through primary and secondary research.
- The research methodology includes the study of annual and quarterly financial reports, regulatory filings of major market players, and interviews with industry experts to gain detailed market insights.
- All major penetration rates, percentage shares, splits, and breakdowns for the electric commercial vehicles market were determined through secondary sources and verified through primary sources.
- All key macro indicators affecting the revenue growth of the market segments and subsegments were accounted for, viewed in extensive detail, verified through primary research, and analyzed to get the validated and verified quantitative & qualitative data.
- The gathered market data was consolidated and added with detailed inputs, analyzed, and presented in this report.
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Data Triangulation
All percentage shares, splits, and breakdowns have been determined using secondary sources and verified by primary sources. All parameters that are said to affect the markets covered in this research study have been accounted for, viewed in extensive detail, and analyzed to obtain the final quantitative and qualitative data. This data has been consolidated, enhanced with detailed inputs and analysis from MarketsandMarkets, and presented in the report. The following figure is an illustrative representation of the overall market size estimation process employed for this study.
Market Definition
According to the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO), an electric vehicle is any motor vehicle that can be recharged from an external source of electricity. The electricity stored in the rechargeable battery packs drives the wheels. Electric commercial vehicles include pickup trucks, trucks, buses, and vans that use electric motors for propulsion. These vehicles are powered by electricity and used for commercial purposes, like transporting goods or passengers.
List of Key Stakeholders
- Associations, Forums, and Alliances related to Electric Trucks
- Automobile Manufacturers
- Automotive Component Manufacturers
- Automotive Investors
- Automotive Software Manufacturers and Providers
- Battery Distributors
- Battery Manufacturers
- Charging Infrastructure Providers
- Charging Service Providers
- Companies Operating in Autonomous Vehicle Ecosystem
- Distributors and Retailers
- Electric Pickup Truck Manufacturers
- Electric Van Manufacturers
- Electric Medium and Heavy-duty Truck Manufacturers
- EV Battery Manufacturers
- EV Charging Equipment Manufacturers
- EV Charging Infrastructure Service Providers
- EV Component Manufacturers
- EV Distributors and Retailers
- Government Agencies and Policy Makers
- Original Equipment Manufacturers
- Raw Material Suppliers for Automotive Software or Components
- Technology Providers
- Transport Authorities
- Technology Providers
- Vehicle Electronics Manufacturers
Report Objectives
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To segment and forecast the size of the electric commercial vehicle market in terms of volume (units) and value (USD million) from 2019 to 2030
- To define, describe, and forecast the electric commercial vehicle market based on body construction, vehicle type, propulsion, battery type, battery capacity, power output, range, end use, component, and region
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume based on body construction (integrated, semi-integrated, and full-sized)
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume and value at the regional level based on vehicle type [pickup trucks, trucks (medium-duty trucks and heavy-duty trucks), vans (light vans and full-size vans), and buses & coaches]
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume based on propulsion (BEVs and FCEVs)
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume based on battery type (NMC batteries, LFP batteries, solid-state batteries, and others)
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume based on battery capacity (less than 60 kWh, 60–120 kWh, 121–200 kWh, 201–300 kWh, 301–500 kWh, and 501–1,000 kWh)
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume based on power output (less than 100 kW, 100–250 kW, and above 250 kW)
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume based on range (less than 150 miles, 151–300 miles, and above 300 miles)
- To segment and forecast the market size by volume based on end use (last-mile delivery, field services, distribution services, long-haul transportation, and refuse trucks)
- To segment the market based on component (battery packs, onboard chargers, electric motors, inverters, DC-DC converters, e-axles (including gearboxes), and fuel-cell stacks)
- To forecast the market size with respect to key regions, namely, Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America
- To provide detailed information regarding the major factors influencing the market growth (drivers, challenges, restraints, and opportunities)
- To strategically analyze markets with respect to individual growth trends, prospects, and contributions to the total market
- To strategically profile key players and comprehensively analyze their market share and core competencies
- To analyze opportunities for stakeholders and the competitive landscape for market leaders
- To track and analyze competitive developments such as product launches, deals, and others undertaken by the key industry participants
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To study the following with respect to the market:
- Supply Chain Analysis
- Ecosystem Analysis
- Technology Analysis
- Trade Analysis
- Case Study Analysis
- Patent Analysis
- Regulatory Landscape
- Conferences and Events
- Average Selling Price Analysis
- Buying Criteria
- To analyze opportunities for stakeholders and the competitive landscape for market leaders
- To track and analyze competitive developments such as product developments, deals, and others undertaken by the key industry participants
Available Customizations
With the given market data, MarketsandMarkets offers customizations in accordance with the company’s specific needs.
- Electric Commercial Vehicle Market, by End Use, at regional level (for countries covered in the scope of the report)
- Electric Commercial Vehicle Market, by Body Construction at regional level (for countries covered in the scope of the report)
- Profiling of additional market players (up to 5)
Generating Response ...
Growth opportunities and latent adjacency in Electric Commercial Vehicle Market